By Justin Mark, SGPN Football Handicapper
My main Eagles bet last week was actually taking the Commanders at +11. I did not expect the Commanders to come out and beat the Eagles like that. Though, I think we can all agree the Commanders received some help from the referees. Regardless, the Eagles dropped their first game, something we thought would probably happen eventually.
It’s not all bad news though. The Eagles losing and the Colts winning last week benefits bettors this week. The Eagles should be favored by more, in fact, they opened as ten-point favorites. However, now they are only seven-point favorites, which can benefit those of us that think the Eagles will get back on track.
Key Defensive Matchup
The Eagles added two players on defense this week, including five-time pro bowler Ndamukong Suh. Suh should help the Eagles get back on track to stopping the run, something they’ve struggled with the past couple of weeks, allowing a 100-yard rusher in each of the past two weeks. Most of this has been because of the injury to Jordan Davis on the defensive line.
Stopping the run will be the key matchup for the Eagles’ defense as they face Jonathan Taylor, who got back to looking like his normal self last week. Taylor put up 147 yards and a touchdown last week. They’ll likely try to lean on Taylor again this week against the Eagles.
Key Offensive Matchup
Speaking of running the ball, last week the Eagles uncharacteristically didn’t eclipse 100 rushing yards as a team. Given that they average just over 140 yards a game, I think the Eagles will focus on getting their ground game back on track. When the ground game is going well, the passing game tends to open up nicely. This is how the Eagles have been able to push other teams around and I think they’ll look to take advantage of the Colts, who are allowing the 15th most rushing yards in the league.
The Pick
This game feels easier to pick just because the lines have shifted so much in favor of the Eagles. Their loss has caused the books to drop down three points. Even though the Colts got a win under new head coach Jeff Saturday, that was against the Raiders. The Eagles are a far better team than the Raiders and will give the Colts more of a challenge.
Looking at lines on WynnBet this week the Moneyline is still a little high at -310 (meaning you’d have to bet $3.10 to win a dollar). My favorite bet is taking the Eagles’ to cover the spread at -7. The Eagles may have stumbled last week; however, I think they’re still one of the best teams in the league and will bounce back nicely. The total for the game is set at 45.5. Because I think both teams will be focused on the run, this game could move a little slower. I’m taking under 45.5.
Prop Bet
Because I believe the Eagles will get back to the run, this one is easy. Also, because of the lower rushing total last week, Miles Sanders’ rushing yards total is only set at 63.5. I like Sanders to go over 63.5 rushing yards. I also like the Eagles to score over 2.5 total touchdowns (-190).
Justin Mark is co-host of SGPN Fantasy Football’s show “Old-Fashioned Football”, co-host of a show on the NFL Gambling Podcast, which airs every Wednesday at 3:30 eastern time on Youtube, and host of the XFL Gambling Podcast. He’s also a writer for the Sports Gambling Podcast. Follow him on Twitter @JMarkFootball and The Sports Gambling Podcast @GamblingPodcast.