2017 Conshohocken Primary Election Results and Analysis
Yesterday was the primary election in Pennsylvania and included several seats on Conshohocken's Borough Council. All but one primary was uncontested, so it wasn't very exciting. Pictured above is Mayor Bob Frost taking home a sign after the polls closed.
Here is who won and some analysis:
Incumbent Democrat Ike Griffin was not challenged and he received 17 votes. There was also one write-in. On the Republican side, Carol Furtak received seven votes.
Analysis - Griffin received one more vote this year than he did in the in the 2017 primary. Furtak received six votes less than the 2013 Republican primary candidate. Looks like Griffin is on a path to hold his seat.
Incumbent Democrat Anita Barton was not challenged and she received 78 votes. There were also two write-in votes. On the Republican site, Bob Moore, Jr., received 41 votes.
Analysis - In the 2013 primary, Anita Barton received 55 votes, so her support has grown since 2013. Bob Moore, Jr. also grew Republican support. The Republican candidate in 2013 garnered only 34 votes. This one could prove interesting.
This isn't the normal year for a primary for a Borough Council seat in Ward 5. This year was a special election due to the Republican winner in 2015 not taking the seat and then Borough Council appointing Jane Flanagan (D). There is a rule that you can't hold a seat through appointment for more than two years.
Incumbent Flanagan captured 84 votes. Republican Paul Horning received 33 votes.
Analysis - The Republican candidate in 2015 received 37 votes, but was able to defeat the Democrat candidate, who had received 47 votes in the primary, in the general election.
Flanagan significantly improved on the primary vote total from 2015, while Horning drew less support than the 2015 candidate. Looks good for Flanagan.
Ward 6 had the only contested primary, which was on the Democratic Party side. Kevin Dwyer was able to defeat Stacy Ellam 87 to 47. There were also 11 write-in votes. Incumbent Republican Bob Stokley received 57 votes. There was also one write-in.
Analysis - Stokley is the only Republican on Borough Council and his support went down by six votes from the last primary. Having a contested primary on the Democratic side brought out a significant increase in primary voters. In 2015, only 57 Democrats voted in the uncontested primary. This year that number grew to 145.
Stokley easily beat the Democrat in the 2013 general election, but one thing to note is that more Democrats voted in this year's Ward 5 primary than cast a vote for the Democratic Party candidate in the 2013 general election.
Republican Stokley will be tough to beat. If Dwyer can secure the support of those who voted for his primary opponent, it will likely be tougher test for Stokley.
Republican incumbent Bob Frost received 224 votes and there were two write-ins. Democratic Party candidate Yaniv Aronson received 476 votes and there were 29 write-ins.
Analysis - In 2015, the Democratic Party candidate received 281 votes in the primary. Frost had 214. That is a total of 495 votes. In this year's primary, Aronson almost matched the total votes received by both parties candidates in 2013 (shy by just 18 votes).
The mayor's seat is ceremonial for the most part and doesn't vote unless there is a tie. It is also the only Borough-wide office, beside Tax Collector. In a Democratic Party majority town, Republican Frost went on to win the general election in 2013 by more than 200 votes.
In the 2013 general election, Frost's opponent was a fellow longtime Conshy resident. Aronson is new to town and is really the first candidate we can remember who has galvanized a significant voting block around him (he almost doubled what a former fire chief received in the 2013 primary).
This might be the first true Borough-wide Old Conshy vs. New Conshy race. They won't want to call it that, but that is what it will be. Republican Frost has proven he can win Borough-wide in a Democratic Party majority town. He will get long time residents who are Democrats voting for him.
We are going to call it a toss-up, with a slight edge for Frost. If this was a Presidential election year, or even one involving electing a Governor or Senator, we would see this differently.
Republican incumbent Dominic Coccia, Jr. received 229 votes. The Democrats didn't have a candidate, but there were 64 write-in votes.
Analysis - We called Republican Coccia the most popular politician in Conshohocken after the 2013 general election because he received more total votes than anyone else. This year the Democrats couldn't even find a candidate to run against him.
Democrats have a real shot at winning every election, except Tax Collector, and taking 100% control of the government of Conshohocken. Having no opposition is never a good thing.
Republicans, get your act together. Your party has no local website and a Facebook page that violates Facebook's Terms of Service (you need a Page, not a personal account). One candidate's signs looked like they were handmade.
Regarding the Facebook account the Republicans do have, stop talking about Seth Williams in Philadelphia, and start talking about what is happening in Conshohocken. This is actually true for both parties. Democrats, stop posting about Trump. Do you ever notice that Democrats never post about the apartment and office buildings they vote to approve?
MoreThanTheCurve.com is going to aggressively cover this campaign. More to come.